I'm at a point in my life where I'm almost 24 years old-- I still can't get steady work in my career as a professional journalist, I have only $1,200 dollars to my name, my relationship with my girlfriend is like Yankee Stadium in '75-- a lot of great history, once pristine, needing an overhaul, almost repaired but not quite ready to be considered championship caliber-- and I think I just put on five pounds. I'm struggling with a lot of things.
But damn, am I getting good at this fantasy baseball thing.
For the second year in a row, I'm about to win my Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball League-- The 2008 Winchell Memorial League, to be precise. Its named after my good buddy Andrew Winchell, who as a fantasy manager was the antithesis of me-- apathetic, quits at the first sign of trouble, and steadfast against trading any of his players (and I thought, as a rule, hardcore Republicans-- like Andrew-- were bulldogs when they put their mind to something?). Last year, to make a political analogy, he pulled a Ross Perot after our league draft-- an event on a day which, for me, now ranks up there with Christmas Eve, Thanksgiving, Super Bowl Sunday, and Wrestlemania-- dropping out of contention when it looked like he had a shot to win the league with his roster (including ace pitcher John Lackey, who ended up scoring me some major points when we had our supplemental draft from Winchell's roster). According to my bud, Billy, Winchell had a history of this tomfoolery, so we eighty-sixed him this year and just named the league after him as a tongue-in-cheek postmortem.
The league is filled with characters who personify how NOT to run your fantasy team:
* Garrett "Polish Power," who meets his demise each year by falling in love with his draft and refusing to make any move until two months into the season. Our first year, he led the league from Opening Day until August, and in an instance of art reflecting life, collapsed like his favorite real-life team, the Mets. Speaking of which...
* Billy "NYMets08Champs," aforementioned, getting fall-down drunk and depressed, releasing half his team to free agency after being spurned by a desired female. Thanks for David Wright and Brandon Webb, by the way.
* One girl, "Freakin' Boys/YEAHHHHHHHHH," who finishes in the top half of the league every year despite not ever watching baseball, and thus not knowing the difference between a hit, a run, and a double (and yes, she literally asked me to distiniguish each, and so I did... a year and a half after I joined the ranks). She'll draft guys with funny names (Coco Crisp) or because they're cute (Scott Kazmir), and yes... I think there needs to be one of her in every league. Even if she holds onto Vladimir Guerrero with a vice grip and gnarled teeth.
* Some dude named "Roberto Pancakes" who sends four or five absolutely absurd trade offers a day, driving the rest of the league crazyand flooding our e-mail boxes-- though three or four of those trades eventually goes through when another player in the league decides to be a maverick. He also is your main competition in picking up flashy rookies and injured superstars off the waiver wires and free agent lists.
* Kyle "Ecto Cooler," who is... a sweet, sweet kid. A poor soul. Singing embarassing soul music to me on the phone every Sunday at 8:00 PM, as per our bet on who would be ahead of the other at the All-Star Break this year. Three months and 140 points later (i.e., A LOT, for those who don't play), Kyle spends his weekends channeling his inner-Teddy Pendergrass.
So what's the secret to conquering your fantasy league? I'll try another list-- all players both inside and out of parenthesis were on my roster the past two seasons, and are those to whom I owe my success:
* Luck. Plain and simple. A substansial amount of good fortune makes up a championship campaign. Many of your decisions will be based on feel-- like a Jason Giambi having a comeback year, or Johan Santana having a Cy Young year after being traded to a pitcher's park in a weaker National League. Some things just can't be realistically expected-- one of my pitchers (Brandon Webb) fired four straight complete game shutouts last year, and another had a no-hitter (Justin Verlander), catapulting me to the top of the standings. Also, at the beginning of the year, your draft order will often be random-- if you get the first pick, its great-- however, the draft order goes like a snake: for example, 1,2,3,4, and then 4,3,2,1. When it wraps around, those at the end have to wait what seems like an eternity before their next pick. The first round, really, is luck, and the most predictable-- after that, the savvy players rule the draft. All the same, getting the top pick, and thus an A-Rod or Albert Pujols, can make up for two or three lesser players taking up two or three more positions in your lineup. Most of all, free agent pickups during the season are a roll of the dice-- but the more you roll, the more you'll be successful and pick up the unexpected, inexpensive, and indispensible parts you need-- Hello, Milton Bradley!
* Trades. You should draft a team, and then either trade/drop at least 75% of them before September-- you're simply not going to get everyone you want in a draft, particularly in a large league with twelve teams like ours. Our league is unlimited trades and no deadline-- the latter which we might implement next year to simultaneously spice things up and prevent one-sided "dump" trades-- thus, unlimited roster tinkering is allowed and essential. I knew who I wanted for my team (Webb, Pujols, & Hanley Ramirez), and I didn't rest until I had all of them. Be persistent. Know your opponents and their personal affections for players (MLB team allegiances is an obvious one and a great starting point) and make something work.
* As a hybrid of the first two categories, knowing when to "buy low" and "sell high" on players in trades will be mostly based, again, on feel. The tangible evidence, however, is always in the statisitics-- let them be your bible. Guys with track records of having 100 RBIs or 30 homers, but are off to slow starts, will more often than not pick it up before the end of the year and will meet their career norms. On the flip side, anyone who owned Chipper Jones was right to be skeptical on him staying healthy even when he was hitting .400 through the month of June. Trading him at any time after the first month of the season was a smart move. Guys playing above their heads-- and as much as I loved the monumental production of Nate McLouth the first half of the season, the guy never had more than 400 at-bats in the major-league year-- can net you big gains. There was no evidence that he would keep up that pace, especially now that performance enhancing drugs have been by and large phased out of baseball. There'll be no mirage Brady Anderson seasons, anymore. Call it a gut feeling based on some research.
* Save your waiver claim and use it only two or three times a season, on a player that's can't miss. If there's moderate risk or less than notciable reward, save it. Especially in large leagues, where you go to the back of the line if you win a claim and have to play the waiting game sometimes for months to be in a good claim position. Trust me, over the course of 162 games, someone in the league will drop a useful guy (Ben Sheets or Rafael Furcal) because of injury, or a can't-miss prospect (Chris Davis or Taylor Teagarden) will become available.
* Judge and employ pitchers by WHIP rather than wins or even ERA, and high strikeout rates are often your friend.
* Don't waste a top 10 draft pick on a closer or other reliever-- they don't pitch enough innings to warrant any significant bump in scoring categories other than the obvious "saves" column-- and over the course of the year, undrafted set-up men graduate to closers due to injury or ineffectiveness, and saves are a readily available commodity.
* Punt the position player strikeout category. If you're self-conscious about strikeouts, you'll eliminate from your mind a large portion of superstar players that contribute greatly towards four or five offensive categories while being a detriment to just one-- and a lot of the guys who strike out a lot also walk and homer a lot, too. See: Grady Sizemore. Speaking of which...
* Draft Adam Dunn. Just do it-- he'll be available after five or six rounds. You'll thank me later. J.P. Ricciardi probably never wins his fantasy league.
* Don't draft rookie pitchers, and don't sign them until they have either a high win total or a 1.20 WHIP or lower after 50 innings pitched. Even then, don't sign them if they don't strikeout at least two hitters to every one hitter that they walk, minimum (2:1 K/BB ratio).
*Stockpile ace pitchers if you can-- you can piece together offensive categories with undervalued, underrated parts if you're smart. Proven commodity pitchers will eliminate headaches. Easier said than done, and being open-minded and flexible on trades is probably the only way to get it done.
* Value middle infielders above all other position players. Quality, productive first basemen and outfielders are a dime-a-dozen. Getting a Brandon Phillips is a boost to your lineup and hurts everyone else when they're left with scraps like David Eckstein and Marco Scutaro at second base.
* Have at least four guys in you lineup that are eligible to play two or more different positions, and two than can play three. A Chone Figgins type (who can play 2B, 3B, and the outfield) makes your lineup flexible and essentially allows you load up in other areas.
There's a quick dozen, and I probably could think of a dozen more-- but those really stick out in my mind. Just pay attention, and know your scoring categories. In our league, holds are not considered something that can give you points, so middle relievers have little or no value unless they net saves. Of course, that increases the value of closers and starting pitchers. Little nuances like that are what makes the game great-- on some level, running a successful team parallels managing a successful business. You've got to have a game plan and guts, taking a few calculated, high-stakes risks. I'm still not 100% on all the details of playing the game, but with what I do know, fantasy success has become a reality.