New York Yankees Season Preview: Starting Rotation

I'll try to get the next two, and final, previews done before the Yankees take the field before the last-ever Opening Day at "The House That Ruth Built." Next season, they'll be moving across the street to "The House That Lonn Trost Built." Just doesn't have the same ring to it... but for $1.3 billion, I'd imagine it'd be pretty swell.

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Starting Rotation:

Chien-Ming Wang (RHP) -- I remember sometime during the 2005 season, Wang's rookie campaign, reading Peter Gammons's blog and hearing his reports of Wang throwing a 97 mile-per-hour sinking fastball. At the time, I thought it may have been a typo-- if we had that kind of special arm, I thought, then why the hell is Kevin Brown and his balky back still in the rotation with his, comparatively, 89 MPH "stinker?" Well, a $15 million difference in salary probably led to former skipper Joe Torre giving the ancient Brown the benefit of the doubt (though I'm certain in order to do so, he would have had to have the 2004 ALCS permanently wiped from his memory through a hypnotist, or perhaps a really good therapist), but Wang didn't let his manager waver for long. By the time the playoffs came around, Wang was starting Game 2 in the ALDS against Anaheim and pitching 6 and 2/3 innings of quality ball, allowing only one run. At that point, Wang had arrived-- but Yankee fans probably never expected the type of stats that the Taiwanese would put up over the next two seasons.

38 wins in 2006 and 2007 (back-to-back years of 19 victories) ranks as the highest amount for any pitcher over the last two seasons-- and though such gaudy win totals can partially be attributed to the incredible run support the New York lineup can provide year in and year out, Wang has stymied many a lineup over the last two years with basically one pitch: the power sinker.

When he's at his best, Wang is the Yankees' best threat to throw a complete game because of his ability to get groundball outs, and when men are on base, double play balls. As mentioned, Wang's sinker is his plus offering, topping out at around 95-96 MPH, which is far faster than a regular sinkerballer's velocity, with left-to-right movement and (when he's effective) bearing down towards a right-hand batter's kneecaps. Though hitters know that Wang almost pitches exclusively off the sinker-- in an average game, Wang throws it between 60-75% of the time-- they struggle mightily to elevate the ball when making contact, hence the high groundout rate. An opposing player once described Wang's sinker as "trying to hit a bowling ball," so unlike most pitchers, Wang has the luxury of being able to pitch to contact and still be effective-- an with his low strikeout numbers (227 Ks in 533.2 career innings), it'll have to remain the same for Wang to be a winner in the majors. Last year, he only gave up only 9 homers all year, which will always translate to a good ERA (3.70 in 199.1 IP).

The rest of his arsenal is effective, but not the stuff of an ace pitcher. Wang throws a four-seam fastball that can get up to 97 MPH itself, which is plus-velocity-- but because its not that much of a speed difference from the sinker, hitters have less trouble timing it and hitting it hard because it has little movement and often stays up in the strike zone. He'll occasionally mix in sliders or changeups, but they're basically "show-me" pitches that are meant solely to keep hitters honest and to set up the sinker. Of the two, he'll throw the slider more regularly if he gets into a two-strike count, trying to get swinging strikeouts-- but many times, hitters will jump on pitches early and the count and never work themselves into that situation.

Wang has good control, and hasn't walked more than 59 batters in a season. He has an exaggerated wind-up, like most Asian imports, when delivering the ball to home plate, lifting the ball in his glove high over his head before stepping towards home plate, which actually helps to keep his mechanics in check. When he pitches from the stretch with runners on base, he has trouble maintaining velocity and sink (for his career, batters hit .296 with men on base against Wang, as opposed to .249 when the bases are empty) and gets tagged for big innings from time to time.

Reports out of Spring Training say that Wang is really trying to develop the changeup further to increase his strikeout rate-- if he'll deviate significantly in pitching patterns remains to be seen. He had a poor camp and was hit hard often, but with that too, it remains to be seen if poor Spring numbers will carry over into the regular season. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't. Combine that with a disastrous postseason performance against Cleveland last October when the Yankees needed him to be their anchor (5.2 IP, 19.06 ERA, 14 H, 4 BB, and 2 K), its conceivable that Wang could have his worst year in pinstripes thus far if he hasn't rebounded mentally. More likely than not, though, at 28 and in his prime, Wang should remain a 15-game winner with a sub-4.00 ERA. Whether he likes it or not, there's a lot riding on #40.

Andy Pettitte (LHP) -- Pettitte told the truth right after the release of the Mitchell Report about his use of HGH in 2002, and also on Capitol Hill amidst the denials of former teammate and good friend Roger Clemens. He's not honorable for cheating the game, and he's not exemplary for telling the truth, as such behavior should be expected-- but he's honest all the same and admitted his mistakes, and a modicum of respect as a person he has now from me. As a pitcher, meanwhile, Pettitte has always been a huge fan favorite and is, of course, one of those precious remaining remnants of the Yankee 1996-2000 dynasty that won four World Series championships. Last season marked a "welcoming home" of sorts for Pettitte after three up-and-down seasons for his hometown Houston Astros, and he pitched as if he never left, compiling a 15-9 record and stabilizing a Yankee rotation early in the 2007 season that was injected full of youth and inexperience from the minor leagues to patch holes while veterans Wang (injury) and Mike Mussina (ineffectiveness) struggled to find their way back to form. He picked up his 200th career win last September, a great milestone, and gave the Bombers their only quality start of their playoff series against Cleveland, showing guts and guile while shutting out the Indians for six innings.

Pettitte is 35, and with youth again being prevalent in the Yankees' 2008 rotation (with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and down the road, perhaps, Joba Chamberlain), its imperative for Pettitte to stay healthy and just as effective. If there's any team that absolutely needs a pitcher to make 35 starts and log in over 200 innings in 2008, its the Yankees with Pettitte if there is to be any shot at winning the American League East.

The cut-fastball is Andy's best weapon, and he can use it effectively to strike out both righties and lefties. While it doesn't have the mid-90's velocity or movement of Mariano Rivera's legendary cutter, its a fine offering more along the lines of what former Yankee-turned-YES Network broadcaster Al Leiter used to specialize in. Ranging from 90-93 MPH, he catches the corners regularly and stays ahead of hitters in counts to set them up for a really good 11-to-5 curveball that has impressive break for strikeouts. Moving back to the American League and some regression with age cost Pettitte about 35 strikeouts (178 K in 2006 with Houston; 141 K in 2007 with New York with nearly identical IP: 214.1 & 215.1), but expecting 150 isn't unreasonable if he has a full year and would still classify him as a swing-and-miss pitcher. Pettitte used to walk a few too many batters in his younger years for the Yankees, cut his yearly totals by about a third in his prime (approximately 75 to 50 per season), and now has almost come full circle the past two years, racking up 70 and 69 walk, respectively. Still, the numbers are not bad and Pettitte is regarded as a pitcher who has decent control.

Pettitte cuts an imposing figure to both the batter and the baserunner while on the mound. He pulls the brim of his baseball cap down around his eyebrows and holds his glove right below his face, giving a stone-faced stare to the hitter. Many hitters find this unnerving, along with Pettitte's ability to hide the ball very well in his long delivery to home plate-- the 6'5, 235-pounder gets great drive towards home plate by planting his tree-trunk like right leg into the dirt, and his pitches look as if they're snapped to home plate rather than thrown. If opposing hitters DO in fact get aboard with singles or walks, Pettitte has what's regarded as one of the best pick-off moves in baseball because of his being left-handed and the fact that his delivery doesn't change much from the wind-up to the stretch-- it allows him to hold the ball for as long as possible before quickly firing his pitches to the catcher. In his career, he has picked off 77 baserunners, and runners have been caught trying to steal 69 times. The combined figure, 146 outs made on the basepaths, is actually greater than the amount of steals Pettitte has given up in 13 seasons in the majors (140). Thus, he too is a candidate to keep baserunners honest and get a little extra help from double plays to get out of jams.

Pettitte should be counted on to eat innings and be consistent in doing so-- if he does his job and keeps the Yankees in games most times out, and mixing in a dominant seven or eight-inning effort every four or five starts when his team needs a victory, he'll be fine. Well, he'll be Andy Pettitte, basically, Mr. Consistency.

Phil Hughes (RHP) -- No Yankee prospect within the last 10 or 15 years has come with the hype of Phil Hughes-- except the bandwagon jumping onto Joba Chamberlain, who came like a whirlwind only last August-- and he showed glimpses of why expectations should be so high for the guy who was universally-regarded as the top pitching prospect going into the 2007 season. A high schooler drafted in the first round of the 2004 entry draft out of Mission Viejo in southern California, Hughes took two-plus years to develop in the system before getting his shot due to injuries in the Yankee rotation in late-April of 2007. In his debut against Toronto he got hit relatively hard, but struck out more than a batter per inning. The next time out, it was a bittersweet, eye-popping outing: No-hitting the Texas Rangers in the 7th inning, Hughes was pulled from the game after injuring his hamstring and would not be seen again until the stretch run. Once back, he continued to have yo-yo type outings with lots of strikeouts (58 in 72.1 IP) and lots of walks as well (29). He's only 21 years old, and had the Yankees' lone win in the playoffs last year against the Indians in Game 3, picking up the pieces after the old and disgraced Roger Clemens couldn't get past the third inning.

One thing you'll notice from watching games on television is that Hughes's pitches probably have more visual movement than any other Yankee starter. Problems with his mechanics and injury at the big league level sapped the power from Hughes and his two types of fastballs (a four-seamer that was clocked around 93-95 MPH while in the minors at AA Trenton in 2006, and a two-seamer with good movement at 90 MPH), but he maintained his curveball, which is a lights-out pitch with "Barry-Zito-in-his-prime" type 12-6 action when Hughes is pitching well, a true "nose-to-toes" offering that is clocked in the mid-to-low 70's. That type of disruption in a hitter's timing will lead to many strikeouts, and if Hughes is healthy and has his power pitches back up to snuff, the disparity could lead to 15o Ks this season (Hughes, because of age and lack of service time, will be on a strict innings count set by pitching coach Dave Eiland and Girardi that will probably max out at 160 or 170 IP at the most). His fourth pitch is a change-up which, like Wang, is not fully-perfected but is being focused on in work with Eiland in being developed into more than a below-average offering. He hadn't had a problem with walks in his minor league career (66 BB in 275.0 IP), so expect the K/BB ratio to be better than the 2-to-1 statistic he put up last season.

So much rides on Hughes taking a step forward this year and fulfilling some of that massive potential, and with his even-keel demeanor and the genuine fun he gets out of playing the game (which he details in his own blog at www.philhughes.wordpress.com, now a popular detour for online Yankee fans), he's got the mental makeup to be absolutely fine, even in the madhouse that is New York. Staying healthy, like most Yankees, will be the only thing that could stop Hughes from winning 15 games this year.

Mike Mussina (RHP) -- "The Moose" had an outlier-type season that defied his decline in 2006 (15 wins, 172 Ks, 1.11 WHIP good for third in the AL) that did two major things-- it put a halt to an otherwise obvious regression in skill and it persuaded the Yankees that Mussina would be worth a two-year contract worth around $23 million. 2007 was back to what should be the expected form for a 39-year-old finesse pitcher, an 11-10 campaign that saw Mussina have his first career ERA over 5.00 (5.15, to be exact). While Mussina walked just as many batters as 2006 (35), he pitched 45 less innings and gave up 188 hits, getting knocked around routinely as the Yankees were making their chase for the playoffs (including a ghastly three-start stretch against the Angels, Tigers, and Mariners-- all contenders last year-- where he pitched only 8.1 innings, with 15 earned runs and only 2 strikeouts) and losing his spot in the rotation to rookie Ian Kennedy. He'll be in a starter for probably his final season in New York and perhaps his career, and that's primarily because Joba Chamberlain has an innings limit this year and will be in the bullpen for the first half of 2007.

Mussina's strength is his cerebral pitching, and has really made the most out of an 88 MPH fastball and only one plus pitch, his knuckle-curveball. He's a high-IQ guy (a graduate from Stanford, no less) who knows how to work hitters with very good control and changing speeds and even arm slots. The knuckle-curve has tighter spin and greater movement than a standard curveball, but is harder to throw-- but Mussina's the best at using it, and usually has excellent command of his off-speed stuff. When working, his knuckle-curve can have a three-foot break, starting at the batter's eye level and ending up right in the strike zone. His other complimentary pitches-- the split-finger fastball, the slider, and the changeup-- are only average and might grade below-average as Mussina's velocity diminishes, creating less of a discrepancy between the hard and soft stuff.

For years, Mussina used to be a lock for 200 innings-pitched, but over the past four has battled minor injuries to his shoulder, arm, and back, limiting his length and effectiveness. On the other hand, Mussina averaged 5.2 IP per start in 2007, so even with 3o or so starts at that rate, it'd be hard to get back to 200. The only hope for Mussina to really remain effective, and he did look sharp in Spring Training, is to slow down all his breaking stuff to keep hitters uncomfortable, and to remember to pitch inside on hitters to expand his strike zone. Too often, Mussina will allow the hitter to stay in and make contact-- at this stage of the game, with all his peripherals heading south, such is a bad idea. Expect a lot of 5-inning starts and a record around .500, maybe a touch better if the Yankees can provide him a lot of run support.

Ian Kennedy (RHP) -- If Kennedy is the Yankees' fifth starter, then they perhaps have the best one in baseball (with respect to El Duque of the Mets, Cliff Lee of the Indians, and Clay Buchholz of Boston). Kennedy burst on the scene last year in September and was overshadowed because of the ballyhoo around Joba Chamberlain, but had three very respectable starts, including one outstanding outing versus Toronto at the Rogers Centre (7.0 IP, 7 K, and only one hit) before being shutdown due to a strain in his right shoulder blade. His whole season in 2007 was exemplary, dominating at three different levels (For Class A Tampa, 6-1, 1.29 ERA, 72 K; for AA Trenton, 5-1, 2.59 ERA, 57 K; and for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 34 K) and was named MILB's "Pitcher of the Year" With many tagging Joba for having a good shot for Rookie of the Year in the AL, don't necessarily count out Kennedy should he reach double-digit wins and utilizes his above-average command and control to his advantage for a similar season in 2008-- he'll be working with an 180 IP limit this season, which would surprise me if he reached as a fifth starter, anyway. Kennedy had a great spring, and its hard not to be optimistic that the 23-year-old will be a mainstay in this Yankee rotation for years to come barring injury.

Kennedy will always be compared to Hughes and Chamberlain because of their closeness in age and having all come up in the same year, which is unfortunate. He doesn't have Hughes's incredible curveball, nor does he have Joba's blazing 100 MPH fastball and knockout slider. In fact, in terms of stuff, his best pitches-- his fastball, which he can get up to 92-93 MPH and his changeup-- are only slightly above-average. What makes him special, however is that he is developing a reputation as a winning player (an All-American college pitcher at USC, he finished up with a 24-12 record, with 380 K in 311.1 IP) who knows how to make the most out of his physical ability. Above all, and as previously mentioned, his control has been unerring all through college and the minors, though it remains to be seen if that will be a real, identifiable asset at the major-league level, where the hitters are more patient and turn mistakes that would be doubles in the minors into long homers. He has been compared to a young Mike Mussina, and even throws a developing knuckle-curve as an out-pitch to match his changeup in racking up strikeouts. He's further developed than Hughes and Chamberlain, and could be the best in 2008 of the three if his counterparts suffer growing pains with newfound expectation. If he's the pitcher he was last season, he wins 13-14 games and is a key reason the Yankees make the playoffs. Its a lot to expect from a pitcher who has only 19.0 IP in his big league career, but has the tools and the track record to make it happen.