New York Yankees Season Preview: Outfielders

Hey there, long time. I've almost forgotten what it is to have a deadline.

I guess for the next few days, I'll be previewing the Yankees season, seeing as looking forward to that is what's getting me through this still-too-cold Albany weather and midterm period.

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Outfielders:

Bobby Abreu (RF) -- Tagged by play-by-play man John Sterling as "El Come Dulce," Abreu was "sweet as candy" after the All-Star Break-- it made up for a miserable beginning where the Yankees tinkered with his place in the lineup and his slumping led to his lowest on-base percentage and walk total in a decade (.369 and 84 BB, respectively). Off the field, it was revealed by GM Brian Cashman this winter that Abreu showed up out of shape to last season's Spring Training, which may account for the poor start-- though any comments made from an in-house employee should be taken with a grain of salt.

Defensively, Abreu is gun-shy about making running catches, particularly against the outfield and foul line walls, but is an otherwise plus fielder with an above-average arm. His range is good and he looks right at home in a fairly easy-to-play right field at Yankee Stadium. In fact, Abreu might be a tad underrated because he makes plays look easy due to the very good reads he gets on balls and he doesn't rack up the impressive outfield assist numbers anymore (like his outfield neighbor, Melky Cabrera) because of his reputation of having a strong arm. Average runners and below will not try and score on fly balls hit towards Abreu unless he has to backtrack a long way-- and while he's not exactly Ichiro, new skipper Joe Girardi will never worry about trotting out Abreu to right for 160 games, as he has proven to be a durable player (playing in at least 150 games a season since becoming a regular starter back in 1998).

Bobby's offensive game, and why he is a crucial cog in the Yankees' lineup, revolves around getting on base, smart and effective baserunning, and scoring runs-- all of which he does at an elite level. While some say Robinson Cano is his inevitable successor in the three-hole, the Yankees will sorely miss Abreu's career .408 OBP if they do decide to let him leave as a free agent after 2008 (they team picked up his $16 million option for this season shortly after the World Series). Because he works over pitchers by fouling off balls and gives the hitters behind him plenty to see-- when he's in a good place at the plate, he'll see plenty of 3-2 counts and almost 7 or 8 pitches an at-bat -- Abreu's the perfect hitter to bat in front of plus average and power hitters like Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, and to a lesser extent, Jason Giambi. His 123 runs scored in 2007 was only second to A-Rod in the majors, and was a career high-- and though his power numbers have dropped since his peak years in Philadelphia, he's a threat to launch a ball into the upper deck in right in any given Yankee Stadium at bat with his long left-handed stroke. In fact, its been downright baffling how his power output has gone down while playing in perhaps the two best hitters parks for left-handed sluggers (Citizen's Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia his home until mid-2006), but its not out-of-this-world to predict 20-25 HR as long as he plays in the Bronx.

Even with 25 steals marking his lowest output since 2003, Abreu always seemed to save his attempts for late and close situations, and was only caught 8 times. Now at 34 years of age and still in the tail end of his prime, a return to 30 steals is not out of the question if you believe in Girardi's decree that the Yankees will return to a philosophy of manufacturing runs rather than waiting to launch the three-run homer. Its hard, with such a unique talent, to suggest he needs to improve his approach-- yet Abreu often left RBIs on the table in situations with two outs and runners in scoring position (.212 AVG, .318 slugging percentage). Even still, there's no reason not to expect another year of 100 runs, 100 RBI, and 100 walks.

Melky Cabrera (CF) -- Boy, we've come a long way since 2005 and Trot Nixon's inside-the-park home run at Fenway Park. During his brief summer call-up, "The Melkman" looked like a deer in the headlights at the tender age of 20, going 2-for-19 in a six game stint which was remembered more so for shoddy defense playing the highest profile position for baseball's most recognizable franchise. Three years later, there's no doubt that Melk is the everyday centerfielder in the Bronx, as Johnny Damon's diminishing range and extremely weak throwing arm have finally made him enough of a defensive liability to have to move him to left. 28 outfield assists in two seasons will undoubtedly dissuade baserunners this season and beyond from trying to stretch doubles into triples, and any singles hit to center and in front of him means that attempting to score from second base would be a treacherous practice. He has slightly-above average range in center and gets good jumps on balls, and has shown the ability to make the flashy play at times-- though on some routine plays he still looks uncomfortable and doesn't get the best reads off the bat. Still developing and only 23, Yankee fans should be excited at the prospect of Melky patrolling center for the next five seasons.

Cabrera's 73 runs-batted-in for 2007 would have been a surprise if he played in any other line-up-- but the Yankees will be on pace to score 900+ runs again, and even hitting in the nine slot as Melky projects to do as long as Damon leads off should be good for perhaps even 80 RBIs, as he will hit at the top of the lineup on days where Girardi will spell Damon. The weakest hitter in the everyday lineup (the eight other hitters all have All-Star resumes), Melky still doesn't need a platoon because of his ability to switch hit and be representative from both sides of the plate-- though he has more pop from the left side, which works to his advantage with the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium. Typical of players in their infancy in the league and learning how to work counts, Cabrera doesn't walk much, but he also doesn't strike out much either (in 545 AB, 43 BB and 68 Ks). Even with a poor start (.200 AVG in April) and a worse finish (.180 in September/October) to his 2007 season, he still managed to hit a respectable .273, with his best play coming when the Yankees needed it most during their drive towards the Wild Card, July (.368) and August (.306), and seemed to be in the middle of most summer rallies. Remember also that during the fateful "Lake Erie Midge" Game 2 of the ALDS versus Cleveland, Cabrera swatted a homer off of the otherwise untouchable Fausto Carmona, so he has a flair for the big hit.

More of a line drive hitter, look for Cabrera to improve his number of 24 doubles to about 30 or so this year. With Girardi's new influence on playing small ball and taking the extra bag as an offensive philosophy, there could be a real spike in his stolen base total-- he had 13 last season-- and his 8 triples in 2007 shows that there's a developing speed element to his game. If everything goes right in his development in 2008, The Melkman could realistically end up with an offensive line of .280, 10 HR, 80 RBI, 30 2B, 10 3B, and 15 SB -- for a guy about whom Cashman once said: "Anything we get from him at the plate is a bonus," the Yankees would be thrilled with that kind of production.

Johnny Damon (LF) -- Redemption and health will be at the forefront of Damon's mind as he attempts to re-establish himself as an elite leadoff hitter and to justify the 4-year, $52 million contract he signed before the 2006 season. After posting a career high 24 home runs in his first year in the Bronx, he only reached half that number (12) in 2007 in an injury-riddled (back & abdominal problems being the main culprits), roller-coaster campaign after which he reportedly considered retirement. With his loose and fun-loving disposition on and off the field, the selfless Damon is a locker room leader and universally respected amongst major league players and managers. Along with Abreu, Cashman also cited Damon as being out-of-shape and lacking focus in pre-season camp last season. Out to prove his worth, Damon this season has reported to Tampa and the Yankees' Spring Training complex 15 pounds lighter and he describes himself to be in the best physical condition he's been in in years.

The move to left field lengthens Damon's shelf life as an everyday position player. After Cabrera rightly assumed center field, Damon spent portions of August and September (while alternating with Matsui in the designated hitter role) making athletic plays in Yankee Stadium's spacious "Death Valley" gap in left-center-- a lot of diving grabs and good plays on balls hit towards the warning track. As aforementioned, his range in center, once his calling card, had become merely average to slightly-below average and his arm strength remains one of the worst in baseball -- though, like Matsui, the throws he does make now from left are quick and accurate enough to hold a good percentage of runners. In center, Damon scared nary a runner in their quest from going first-to-third or from scoring on a sacrifice fly-- in left, where its expected a team will place its outfielder with the weakest arm, he won't have as much of a problem.

As a hitter, I believe that Damon found his groove in the postseason against the Indians (2 HR, 5 RBIs in four games, including the game-winning three-run blast in Game 3) and showed the type of clutch hitting his career has become known for. In the regular season, he still ended up having 533 at-bats for all the talk about battling injuries (famously, Damon is proud of never having gone on the disabled list), and playing in pain no doubt affected his numbers in several categories-- but not as much as you'd think. In fact, Damon had a stellar year in steals (27 in 30 attempts, which was by far the best ratio for an underrated Yankee speed game) and had one less walk than his 2006 total (66, 67) in 60 fewer AB. Thus, his OBP improved in his second year in pinstripes and he raised his steal total, which are major assets for a leadoff hitter. Damon's 93 runs represented the first tie he didn't reach the 100 runs scored mark since 1997, but if healthy, there's no reason to think he can't get back there. His open stance approach would lead you to believe that Damon would be a slap hitter, but he's at his best when dropping the bat head on the ball, a la Paul O'Neill during his Yankee days, pulling offerings on the inner half inside the right field foul pole. In fact, Damon's power has always been underrated, and he and Jason Giambi are the two hitters in the New York lineup that make the most frequent trips to the upper deck that hangs over the short porch (as Yankee fans will no doubt also remember from the 2004 ALCS, when Damon took Javier Vazquez deep for a grand slam).

He'll want to raise his batting average from the lower-than-usual .270 mark set in 2007, and he will because he's still a special hitter who forces pitchers to give him hittable offerings for fear of him being on the basepaths. Even if Damon's body bends a bit, history shows it most likely will not break, and I believe he's due for a rebound season, with a line close to 20 HR, 80 RBIs, 25-30 SB and 110 runs scored.

Hideki Matsui (LF) -- So long ago it seems, Matsui's signing after the 2002 season with the Yankees seemed to mean a World Series title was fait accompli -- the legendary slugger from the Orient was to assimilate himself into the Jeter/Bernie Williams/Giambi/Posada machine of a lineup and bet the missing ingredient that would assure a continuation of the Yankee dynasty. In that first year, after all the promises of championships for Matsui the Yankees offered when moving from Japan's premier franchise to join up with America's version, Matsui found himself playing in the Fall Classic. Since then, Matsui and the Yankees haven't been back, and you have to wonder whether or not "Godzilla" is kicking himself for leaving behind his God-like status in the Far East for also-ran finishes in the AL East.

Still listed on the roster as an outfielder, Matsui will see most of his time at DH. Not to say he still cannot play an adequate left field-- he can, and has had successful stints at all three outfield spots in his five seasons in New York -- the Yankees feel that Damon offers a hair more athleticism and range out of that spot, and the emergence of Cabrera in center created a log jam that the team had not forseen when signing both Damon and Matsui to identical four-year deals. If he does spend some time as a position player, it will be as a platoon with Damon in left. Not blessed with the gift of speed, Matsui in left field will mean more bloop hits, and his weak arm will mean more doubles for opposing teams. If there's any strength for Hideki, its the way he handles caroms off the walls, particularly in Fenway Park. Proving adept at this, its the primary reason why Matsui had a respectable 6 outfield assists in 112 games in left.

The Yankees, however, pay the lefty slugger solely for his bat, which is still above-average (25 HR, 103 RBIs in 2007). He'll hit either in the five or six hole, and will provide good protection for Abreu & A-Rod with a batting average somewhere around .300 and an OBP hovering around .375 or so, and 100 RBIs are almost a given. His short, compact swing allows Matsui to get around on the best fastballs, if only to foul them off the see another pitch. When he's locked in, you'll often see balls sail over the wall in right-center in a hurry, and in bunches. In fact, Matsui is probably the Bombers' streakiest hitter when considering the All-Star caliber players-- when pitchers can effectively paint the outside corner of the plate, that's when Matsui is susceptible to the strikeout, and an image that Yankee fans who watch every game would be familiar with: Matsui jerking his head away violently, off-balance despite his repeatable swing. Like Abreu, he'll have to improve his 2007 numbers with two outs and RISP (.210, with only one homer in 81 at-bats), considering his place in the heart of the order.

He's coming off of knee surgery, and might have a slow start as he tries to get back into the groove of hitting and playing everyday. Durability has been an issue ever since breaking his wrist in May of 2006 while diving for a sinking bloop hit, but before then, Matsui had a 1,700+ games played streak. With the streak over, he'll now be rested somewhat regularly, and I'd imagine such a measure will preserve Matsui. If he doesn't have at least 500 at-bats, I'd be very surprised. For some reason, I have a hunch that we'll see Matsui be the poster boy for sacrificing some power for base hits this season-- it seems natural with that swing that he could hit .320 if he wanted to. So... let's say, .315, 21 HR, 110 RBI, 35 2B and 200 hits.

Shelley Duncan (OF/1B) -- Duncan will probably split time caddying Giambi at first with occasional trips to the corner outfield spots if the Yankees are shorthanded by injury. He's a high-energy, hustle player who has an all-or-nothing swing. Finally making the majors in his late 20's due to an impressive power output in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he had a Shane Spencer-esque run with 7 homers in just 74 at-bats when the Yankees called him up in July.

From what I saw of him as an outfielder, he's probably best in right. He's got a pretty good arm, and in only 8 games he did have 2 assists. He tracks the ball fairly well, and made an impressive bare-handed play off the wall in the one instance I can remember him having to make a tough play, throwing out a runner trying to stretch and line drive single into two bases. He's not particularly fleet of foot, so I'd imagine his range is average at best, and as a Yankee fan, you probably wouldn't want to see him in the outfield a prolonged stint.

What Duncan does offer to the Yankees is a power bat from the right side of the plate, albeit not nearly with the same consistency of a Gary Sheffield, whose right-handed (but certainly not his clubhouse) presence the Yankees have yet to replace to balance out their extreme left-handedness. He's a dead-pull hitter with a long swing that has a distinct uppercut motion which will lead to a lot of strikeouts, but mistakes in the out over the plate will be crushed, as Duncan hits 'em a long way. If he can prove that he can be effective with only sporadic at-bats, he'd be a great weapon to have as a pinch hitter late in ballgames, for he can strike fear into a pitcher's heart if they falter with location.

He's already been suspended three games to begin the season (pending appeal), so Duncan could begin his year at Triple-A and be brought up to the 25-man roster at the first sign of injury. He's embraced the idea of a new, fiery Yankee attitude under Girardi, and will be a fan favorite perhaps even after his inevitable 0-for-20 stretch with 12 strikeouts. If the Yankees got 15 home runs out of him in 350-400 at-bats, then he's done his job.

Brett Gardner (CF) -- Gardner could make the club out of Spring Training, and at this point, he's ready to be a defensive outfielder and a pinch-runner at the major league level. The problem is that he's playing for the wrong franchise, as there's more outfielders signed to guaranteed contracts than the Yankees know what to do with and only so much playing time to go around.

The diminutive Gardner plays a great center field, with great range and speed to go along with fabulous instincts. Defensively, he's superior to Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, one of Boston's top prospects and who will be playing every day in Fenway at center and no slouch in the speed department. Actually, he's not far behind Coco Crisp, speaking of Red Sox, who is often regarded as one of baseball's top 3 defensive outfielders. His one weakness would be arm strength, but even that's average and he's thrown out a few runners at home plate this spring in exhibition games.

Hitting for average is also a strength for Gardner, abandoning all hope for power and focusing his efforts on driving the ball to the opposite field, and if balls get into the gaps, he'll be on third base with his outstanding wheels. From the stats and the limited visions I've seen, he is a disciplined hitter who doesn't expand the strike zone and could hit .300 in the majors relatively quickly if offered consistent playing time. Maybe even if not. He also looks as if he can bunt very well, which is right up the alley of Girardi's "small ball" ethos that will be implemented this season.

Again, his best asset is speed, and he's a quality baserunner to boot -- in two years and 116 attempts, Gardner had 97 steals. God forbid, but let's say Melky goes down and Gardner is offered to hit ninth for a month or two-- the Yankees could get 15-20 steals out of Gardner, a dozen or so doubles and a handful of triples, setting the table for Damon, Derek Jeter, and Abreu. Not only is that possible, its downright realistic-- but its all projection based on an opportunity that may or may not come. I think the guy's ready if the club calls him up at some point in 2008.

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